WASHINGTON (DTN) -- U.S. farmers could see some bang for the buck in a series of smaller trade deals, but the best opportunity for resetting U.S. agricultural trade continues to rest with China, a former U.S. trade negotiator said Monday.

There also could be opportunities for some commodities to see more sales to India, said Sharon Bomer Lauritsen, founder of AgTrade Strategies LLC. Bomer Lauritsen served 15 years at the U.S. Trade Representative's Office and became the assistant U.S. trade representative for agriculture during the first Trump administration.

Bomer Lauritsen spoke Monday to members of the North American Agricultural Journalists (NAAJ) group.

Despite early attempts in the Trump administration to boost agricultural trade, Bomer Lauritsen pointed out that U.S. agricultural exports this year have declined 8% in value and 7% in volume. Meanwhile, imports are up 12% in value and 4% in volume during the same time. A big part of the disparity comes due to the U.S. exporting commodities while importing more higher-end products from elsewhere.

"A lot of what we export are actually commodities, and a lot of what we import are actually consumer goods," Bomer Lauritsen said.

TARIFFS AND TRADE WITH CHINA

U.S. tariffs on China are now at 145%, while China also has retaliated on all U.S. agriculture products.

President Donald Trump has said the U.S. is in negotiations with China, though the Chinese government disputes that claim. Trump also has said as many as 200 countries are working to reach trade deals with the U.S.

While trade with Hong Kong is separate from trade with China overall, USDA on Monday announced a trade mission to Hong Kong from May 12-16 to increase market access and expand U.S. agricultural exports. The delegation includes more than three dozen agribusinesses, trade organizations and representatives from five state departments of agriculture, USDA stated.

U.S. agricultural trade with China already has fallen 59% year to date compared to 2024. There was a lot of attention on April 24 when USDA reported Chinese buyers had canceled potential purchases of 12,000 metric tons of pork products. It was the largest pork cancellation by China since the pandemic in 2020.

The relationship with China could also become more problematic over new port fees set to go into effect in October. While the fees on Chinese carriers and ships appear to exempt bulk ships, container ships will have fees.

U.S. EXPORTS WILL BE AFFECTED BY NEW FEES

The Ag Transportation Coalition has concluded that roughly 25% of total U.S. export volume -- and 55% of export value -- will be affected by the new fees, Bomer Lauritsen noted.

"We do export high-value products around the world. So, it's just that the balance is significantly higher on the commodities, right?" Bomer Lauritsen said. "We had a very, very active distilled alcohol industry working very hard to avoid retaliatory tariffs from Europe on, you know, their whiskey or their wine; we do export baked goods. And again, it's, you know, a lot of this is with Canada."

While highlighting some of the tariffs and trade talks, Bomer Lauritsen noted there is a lot of talk among Trump administration officials that the 10% tariff on every country could remain. There are no specific negotiations to get rid of that 10% tariff.

"I think it's very possible we could keep that 10% tariff on our exports for the next four years, though some would argue that they're not consistent with our international trade obligations," she said.

BANG FOR THE BUCK

Asked which countries or trade deals would provide the most bang for the buck for U.S. farmers, Bomer Lauritsen pointed to comments by former Trade Ambassador Allen Johnson that negotiators "need to do small deals for agriculture" that accumulate trade over time.

"I am not that convinced this administration is interested in free-trade agreements, but they take a long time to do. So, if that's an option, it's going to be longer term," Bomer Lauritsen said.

Bomer Lauritsen was a negotiator on the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement in the first Trump administration. Despite not reaching the agreed-upon $40 billion in sales -- China topped $38 billion in 2022 -- Bomer Lauritsen said there were a lot of successes in that agreement simply due to regulatory changes by China.

"I'll argue that our agreement with China was one of the two biggest bangs for the bucks ... It's the substance of the regulatory issues. We changed a lot in that agreement that entered into force in 2020. We got beef in, we got poultry in, we got pet food in," Bomer Lauritsen said.

She added, "It's a huge market, and we're losing it, and we need the ability to compete against Brazil and other countries to get that market back."

Another potential trading partner for agriculture that comes up frequently is India.

"I'm less bullish on India," Bomer Lauritsen said. "I've negotiated with India, and I think there is opportunity for certain products. But India protects its farmers. In fact, all countries protect their farmers in some way, but India is really very strict about it. They will not lower their tariffs on products that their farmers grow. So, I think there is an opportunity in India, but it will be a more product-specific outcome rather than something comprehensive."

Bomer Lauritsen pointed to rice, wheat and dairy as three areas where India will more than likely focus on defending its farmers rather than open the market.

"But ethanol, it would be really, really helpful if they could open up that market," she said.

COUNTRY-OF-ORIGIN LABELING

Asked about country-of-origin labeling (COOL), Bomer Lauritsen said Canada and Mexico still have a World Trade Organization ruling that would allow them to retaliate against the U.S. should a new COOL rule come up. She said both countries are watching proposals at the state and federal level.

"It still hangs over our trade with Canada and Mexico," she said.

COOL could also easily come up as a topic next year when the three countries look to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

"So, I don't see it being off the table, but I know Canada and Mexico are keeping an eagle eye on it," she said.

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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